Operation Imaginal
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The Plane Question · 01 of 03

Would you get on this plane?

Imagine a plane. The engineers who built it are at the gate.
You ask them a single question.

50%

of AI researchers believe there is a 10% or greater chance that humans go extinct from our inability to control AI.

— 2022 AI Impacts Survey, surfaced by Tristan Harris in The AI Dilemma

"Would you get on a plane if 50% of the engineers who built it said there was a 10% chance you would go down? Of course you wouldn't.

And yet — the plane is already in the air."

— Tristan Harris, opening The AI Dilemma

The Engineers

Six of the people who built the plane.

Here is what they actually said about the odds.

Roman Yampolskiy

Roman Yampolskiy

AI Safety Researcher · Univ. of Louisville · Coined "AI safety" in 2011

"We don't get a second chance. You're really asking me what are the chances that we'll create the most complex software ever on the first try with zero bugs — and it will continue to have zero bugs for 100 years or more."

His estimate: 99.9% within 100 years.

Geoffrey Hinton

Geoffrey Hinton

Nobel Laureate 2024 · Godfather of AI · Left Google to warn the world

"There is also a longer term existential threat that will arise when we create digital beings that are more intelligent than ourselves. We have no idea whether we can stay in control."

From his 2024 Nobel Prize banquet speech.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk

CEO · Tesla, SpaceX, xAI · Co-founded OpenAI

"Mark my words, AI is far more dangerous than nukes. Far. So why do we have no regulatory oversight? This is insane."

"It is conceivable AI could take control."

Simon Willison

Simon Willison

Software Engineer · Co-creator of Django · Coined "prompt injection" in 2022

"Lots of people knew those little O-rings were unreliable. But every time they launched without failure, they institutionally felt more confident. We have this same normalization of deviance in AI today. My prediction is that we're going to see a Challenger disaster."

Applying Diane Vaughan's NASA framework to AI today.

Yuval Noah Harari

Yuval Noah Harari

Historian · Author of Sapiens, Homo Deus, Nexus

"People think AI stands for artificial intelligence. But there is nothing artificial about the new forms of AI — they are developing on their own. It's better to think about AI as standing for alien intelligence."

From "AI: Alien Intelligence" on his official YouTube channel.

Tristan Harris

Tristan Harris

Co-founder · Center for Humane Technology · The AI Dilemma

"We are releasing the most powerful, inscrutable, uncontrollable technology we have ever invented — faster than we've deployed any other technology in history — under the maximum incentive to cut corners on safety. There's a word for this. This is insane."

The man who asked the plane question.

The other six refuse to talk about extinction.

They are focused on what the plane is doing right now — gutting jobs, concentrating wealth, capturing regulators, exploiting workers in the Global South. They argue these present harms are the more urgent crisis. Their warnings are different. They are not less alarming.

Andrew Yang Andrew Yang Labour Karen Hao Karen Hao Wealth Extraction Zoe Hitzig Zoe Hitzig Capture Diane Vaughan Diane Vaughan Org. Drift Simon Willison Simon Willison Security Emad Mostaque Emad Mostaque Open Source

Read all 12 voices →

You would not get on the plane. So why are we letting it carry our children?

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